Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future [NulledPremium]

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Book details
File Size: 1.40 MB
Format: epub
Print Length: 544 pages
Publisher: The Bridge Street Press (March 5, 2020)
Publication Date: March 5, 2020
Sold by: Amazon.com Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B07SZLGZYH

In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter.

Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.

Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands – the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don’t. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers.

Reviews:

“In this profound yet practical book, Kay and King admit the obvious―that in crucial domains, we do not, will not, cannot know what is going on―and show, nevertheless, how to retain the ability to function.” – Paul Romer, Nobel laureate

“Many books will make a reader better informed or smarter. This is one of very few that will make a reader much wiser. You will live differently and better after you grasp Kay and King’s seminal lessons about radical uncertainty.” – Lawrence H. Summers, US Treasury Secretary 1999-2001, and Charles W. Eliot University Professor at Harvard University

“John Kay and Mervyn King want more people to grasp the old distinction between risk and uncertainty forgotten by a later generation of economists. Too many of life’s uncertainties are presented to us as if they are calculable risks, especially in the realm of finance. We should focus on the truly calculable risks, they argue, and stop pretending we can predict situations of radical uncertainty.” – Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow, the Hoover Institution, Stanford

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